Summary Bitcoin Cash (BCH-USD) and Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust (BCHG) lack compelling catalysts or narrative tailwinds to justify a speculative long position. Network usage for BCH is at seven-year lows, with daily active addresses and transactions down 37% and 51% year-over-year, respectively. BCH trades at an MVRV ratio of 1.5, indicating valuation risk remains elevated, especially if the crypto bear market deepens. BCHG trades at a 16.4% discount to NAV, but the discount could widen further; I see no reason to be bullish on BCH or BCHG. It has been roughly seven months since I last covered Bitcoin Cash ( BCH-USD ) or the Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust ( OTCQX:BCHG ) for Seeking Alpha. To briefly recap my thoughts on both the fund and the underlying asset; a BCHG long position is essentially a speculative bet on the performance of BCH. My view has typically been that a speculative bet in the cryptocurrency space generally requires either a fundamental catalyst or a narrative tailwind of some sort. Data by YCharts Interestingly, since the publication of that last BCH piece that I wrote in June 2025, Bitcoin Cash has significantly outperformed Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ). Thus, the obvious question; is there a reason for this out-performance that would justify one of those speculative long positions in BCHG or BCH more directly? Born Out of Conflict Without getting into the entire history of Bitcoin Cash (which I first covered in 2021) the network came into existence as a hardfork from Bitcoin in 2017 following the 'blocksize war' that began a couple years prior. While several prominent early Bitcoin adopters initially supported the hard fork, Bitcoin Cash failed to take off. BCH/BTC Weekly Chart (TrendSpider) Peak to trough, BCH is down 98% from its 2018 high priced in BTC. That said, Bitcoin Cash has quietly out-performed Bitcoin going back to January 2025. Beyond that, one could make the argument that the coin has indeed broken out of its downtrend against BTC. But, as I said in the opening section of this article, better speculative plays come with either a fundamental or narrative catalyst backing the move. For that, we have to look at on-chain data as well as any potential headlines that could provide a shift in sentiment. Bitcoin Cash Network Usage & Sentiment Catalysts 30 Day Active Addresses: BCH (CoinMetrics) Without belaboring the point too much, the network usage story is simply not there for Bitcoin Cash. The chart above shows the long term trend for Daily Active Addresses (or DAAs) on the Bitcoin Cash network over a rolling 30 day average. Not only is the current number showing a 7 year low in DAAs, but at 26k DAAs in the month, January 2026 averaged nearly a 37% year-over-year decline in the metric from 2025: Bitcoin Cash January 2025 December 2025 January 2026 YoY MoM DAAs 41,205 31,533 26,035 -36.8% -17.4% Avg Txs 23,682 17,531 11,630 -50.9% -33.7% Source: CoinMetrics It's not much better in the transactions department where the 11.6k average daily transactions put the network down 51% from the same period last year; again, a seven year low. Despite these troubling usage trends, the valuation of the coin itself relative to the realized value of its purchasers is still well ahead of anything resembling what could be considered low. MVRV BTC vs BCH (CoinMetrics) At an MVRV ratio of 1.5, not only is BCH priced essentially in line with BTC, but judging by this indicator, the valuation of Bitcoin Cash could go much lower in a proper bear market; which I would argue we're already in. From a sentiment standpoint, the broader crypto market does indeed show bearish readings with CoinMarketCap's 'Fear and Greed' index reading a 17: Fear & Greed Index (CoinMarketCap) This would put the market in 'extreme fear' territory for the second time since November 2025. One of the things that I think could be hurting digital asset sentiment at the moment is the market digesting the recently released Epstein Files on January 30th. Among many other takeaways from that release, the files show that Jeffrey Epstein had at least rudimentary ties to some of Bitcoin's early adopters. Specifically, documents from the latest Epstein file release show that Epstein was an early investor in Lightning Network developer Blockstream. Blockstream's founder and CEO Adam Back acknowledged this in a February 1st post on X : In 2014, during Blockstream's seed-round investor roadshow, the company was introduced to then MIT Media Lab director Joi Ito. Subsequently Blockstream met with Jeffrey Epstein, who was described at the time as a limited partner in Ito's fund. That fund later invested a minority stake in Blockstream. A few months later, Ito's fund divested its Blockstream shares due to a potential conflict of interest, and other concerns. Blockstream has no direct nor indirect financial connection with Jeffrey Epstein, or his estate. In addition to the early connection with Adam Back, Epstein was also reportedly an early investor in Coinbase ( COIN ). To be clear, I'm not making a distinction either way about whether crypto-specific Epstein investments made many years ago diminish the viability of those same investment ideas today. What I will say is there are sure to be some who don't view this as positive news and may view it as a final straw for an asset class that has yet to have it's full capitulation moment in a bear market. Furthermore, in the event there are any Bitcoiners who view potential ties to Jeffrey Epstein early in the network's history as a big enough reason to look elsewhere in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin Cash could theoretically benefit since it shares so many similarities to the initial network. That said, that would not be a speculation that I would personally wager a large amount of capital on. Grayscale Bitcoin Cash Trust For those who do want exposure to Bitcoin Cash, Grayscale's Bitcoin Cash Trust truly is the only real option in the traditional financial markets. Unlike many other assets in the space, Bitcoin Cash is not an asset that has benefited from spot ETFs or large institutional flows through diversified crypto products. However, like many Grayscale funds, BCHG does trade at a size-able discount to net asset value: BCHG NAV Premium/Discount (CoinGlass) As of February 2nd, shares of BCHG trade at a 16.4% discount to NAV. This is the biggest the NAV discount has been in BCHG since fourth quarter 2023 when it flipped from a discount to a premium during the pre-BTC spot ETF approval rally across the sector. The fund has been trading at a NAV discount for several months dating back to Q2-25. However, before jumping into BCHG on any potential arbitrage strategy, I would caution that this NAV discount could get much worse before it gets better. The fund traded at a deep discount for almost two entire years during the last 'crypto winter.' At one point in December 2022, BCHG had a NAV discount just shy of 60%. Closing Summary BCHG as a Bitcoin Cash proxy and arbitrage play makes some sense if we're closer to the end this crypto cycle's bear market than the beginning. I don't happen to think we're closer to the end than the beginning. Additionally, the usage of the Bitcoin Cash network itself is lackluster. Bitcoin Cash is bordering on a 'ghost town' blockchain as I see it. Furthermore, I don't think Bitcoiners who may be upset about Jeffrey Epstein's early Bitcoin connections are likely to leave BTC for BCH. Rather, to the degree that any leave Bitcoin over Epstein funding developers I would suspect they'll just leave the space entirely rather than pivot to another coin. At this juncture, I don't see any real reason to be bullish BCH. Thus, I don't see a reason to be bullish BCHG either.