According to Bitstamp data, Bitcoin climbed 6.2% on February 25 , closing the daily candle above the $70,000 mark. The move came despite comments from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicating that tariffs on certain Chinese goods could rise from 10% to 15% in the coming days. Markets appeared largely unfazed. In recent months, the trade war narrative has had a diminishing impact on crypto, and Bitcoin’s latest surge suggests broader macro fears are not currently dictating price action. After weeks of sustained selling pressure, BTC/USD has now returned to one of the most closely watched technical levels in the market. The 200-Week EMA Is the Line That Matters Bitcoin is once again testing its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $68,355. Historically, losing this level has coincided with prolonged bearish phases, while reclaiming it has often marked the early stages of longer-term recoveries. Market analysts note that a weekly close above this level is essential for confirming strength. Without it, the recent rebound risks becoming another short-lived relief rally. From a statistical standpoint, historical cycles show that reclaiming the 200-week EMA rarely happens cleanly. In previous market recoveries, Bitcoin required multiple attempts and retests below the level before establishing it as firm support. A single daily close above it is not sufficient confirmation. Upside Targets Come Into Focus If support holds, traders are watching the $74,492 region as a potential upside objective. That level aligns with the 2025 annual low and could act as a magnet if bullish momentum accelerates. However, failure to secure a weekly close above $68,355 would keep downside risks alive and reinforce cautious sentiment among technical traders. Gold Divergence Adds a New Twist At the same time, an emerging bullish divergence has appeared in the relative strength index (RSI) on the BTC/GOLD pair. While gold continues trading near record highs above $5,000 per ounce, Bitcoin’s relative momentum is quietly improving. If confirmed, this divergence could signal the beginning of capital rotation from gold back into Bitcoin. Earlier this year, Bitcoin’s pullback from its October 2025 peak fueled arguments that it had lost its “digital gold” narrative and was behaving more like a risk asset. A sustained move higher from current levels would challenge that view. For now, everything hinges on the weekly close. The $68,355 zone remains the dividing line between renewed bullish structure and continued market fragility.