Summary I reiterate my buy rating on Bitcoin, emphasizing that current market fear signals a near-bottom opportunity. Record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy's revised reserve policy have fueled extreme investor fear and price declines. Historical patterns, on-chain metrics, and the realized price near $53,000 all suggest a cyclical bottom is imminent. Long-term holder supply is near all-time highs, reinforcing the thesis that now is an optimal entry point for BTC. Investment Thesis I reiterate my buy rating on Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ). My tenth article about this theme and my last article were published last month . Key events occurred since last month, and I couldn't leave my readers high and dry. Record Outflows on Bitcoin ETFs June ended and marked a huge outflow in Bitcoin ETFs, as the chart below shows. Flows to Cryptocurrency funds (DB) This occurred because institutional investors are more attracted by AI than crypto. The Bitcoin ETF debut created a strong inflow for crypto, but the strong AI momentum is draining this capital. The big point is that these investment flows are extremely unpredictable, while other vectors were more predictable, such as the weekly Bitcoin purchases by Strategy, but even this predictability seems threatened. The Strategy Shift When we analyze companies around the world, Strategy ( MSTR ) is the main Bitcoin holder with around 850,000 Bitcoins. Strategy's CEO had the slogan "Never Sell Your Bitcoin", but now Strategy has released new guidelines: Dollar reserve policy; Buyback program ($1 billion in common shares); Buyback program ($1 billion in preferred shares); I wrote an article about Strategy some time ago, and this situation was described as a possibility in that article. So this announcement didn't surprise me. The fact is that all events described above created extreme fear among investors. Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Binance) This extreme fear contaminated prices, the risks stood out, and Bitcoin prices are plunging more than 50% since highs were reached in October 2025, but few analysts describe the opportunities unlocked by these prices. Price Change (%) (SA) The Opportunities Unlocked In 2013 Bitcoin prices entered a crypto winter and fell 86%. Between 2017 and 2018, an 83% fall occurred during 357 days. After that, in 2021 a 77% fall occurred in 364 days. If this pattern repeats, a fall between 60% and 65% is projected in around 357 days, which would end the current crypto winter in October 2026. Bitcoin Cycles (Trading View) Curiously, when we analyze seasonality, October is also an excellent month for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Monthly Returns (%) (CoinGlass) The indicator above suggests that the Bitcoin bottom is very close. The most curious thing is that another different indicator also suggests the same pattern. The realized price is the average acquisition price of all Bitcoins in circulation. Curiously, the crypto winter never ended before the Bitcoin price reached the realized price. At this moment the realized price is around $53,000. Realized Price (MacroMicro) Another bottom signal comes from the Bitcoin LTH Supply, which tracks the quantity of Bitcoins held by long-term investors. This metric improved in 2026, and at this moment the metric is near an all-time high. Bitcoin LTH (Coinglass) Many on-chain metrics indicate that we are near the bottom, and this is the best moment to make a profit. I reiterate my buy rating on Bitcoin even after the recent events. The Bottom Line The first months of 2026 made Bitcoin investors worried, but June specifically generated extreme fear. Bitcoin ETF outflows reached a record, and Strategy's CEO broke a promise to never sell Bitcoin, but every crisis generates opportunities!