Summary Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund ETF (FBTC) remains a BUY in my opinion despite an 8% drawdown since December 2026, supported by unexpressed value in Bitcoin. FBTC's high liquidity grade (A+) makes it ideal for speculative trading, though lower-fee ETFs like BTC may suit long-term holders better. Three bullish drivers,political inflationary policy, strong macro/tech sector growth, and accumulating 'unexpressed scarcity',support the Bitcoin thesis. I manage FBTC risk with technical signals (weekly RSI near 30), targeting controlled entries amid high volatility (43% annualized). From the last coverage of FBTC, the price has dropped by 8%. In this market, there doesn't seem to have been room for uncertainty. Yet it's precisely in a market like the one we're going through today, that I think Bitcoin can make room for itself. And personally, despite the price congestion, I continue, stubbornly, to identify 3 potential patterns/virtues that could make demand step on the accelerator, therefore the price. And I talk about it here, but first... A quick TL;DR For new readers I'm happy to leave this TL;DR, to introduce us all better to what is the thesis of my research: FBTC was born with the objective of following the price of BTC-USD, by directly holding bitcoin; it's a spot ETF. To do this it charges costs ( TER ) of about 0.25%; an element, even if not the only one, that has over time contributed to amplifying the tracking error. Let me explain better ... FBTC: 1Y Price Performance (Seeking Alpha) Since BTC-USD is very volatile, and since the fees are paid in Bitcoin, and all the more so since from 2024 BTC has grown by over 74%, the cost of those fees, in absolute terms remains higher than what is actually paid, and the true measure is precisely in the lower total return that you get compared to obtaining Bitcoin directly onchain. FBTC - BTC-USD: tracking (Seeking Alpha) And if one were to introduce a peer comparison, costs become an indispensable yardstick in this sense. And considering that there are ETFs with lower fees, such as for example BTC , why then take FBTC into consideration? It will potentially have a higher tracking error over time? FBTC: Bitcoin ETF Comparison (Seeking Alpha) Yes, partly yes. But it's also true that FBTC has an important merit. An enviable liquidity grade, for SA A+, which makes it interesting for faster operations, and representativeness in the entry and exit price, with the guarantee of the Fidelity brand. And it's an element I appreciate, especially for the thesis and strategy I'm about to introduce you to. FBTC: Liquidity Grade (Seeking Alpha) My view The price clashes clashing with 3 evidences that in my opinion are bullish for Bitcoin. And I love working on divergences, because they allow me to manage the position well. Before showing you how, here are what are the 3 unexpressed virtues in my opinion: Political reasons Trump has interest in my opinion in keeping the value of the dollar low. It happens because in the coming months America will have to repay 7 trillion dollars of debt and that's not little. Federal Debt Trend (FRED) And in this sense, I'm not surprised by Trump's interest in maintaining a positive inflationary tone: He puts pressure on the Fed to cut rates (increases inflation and reduces the cost of debt) He introduces tariffs , despite the DOJ's accusations, today increasing by 25% the prices of the automotive segment, an important key of the industrial sector, a direct component of inflation. He carries forward a war narrative in the direction of key energy centers like Venezuela and the Middle East, making the price of oil skyrocket. He introduces fiscal maneuvers like Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" which yes.. will increase fiscal deficits, but also pushes up monetary circulation, another important key to reading aggregate inflation. 5Y Inflation Expectations (FRED) And it's natural, because sustained inflation is the key to lightening the weight of debt and transferring it to savers. And in this context an unusual variable is inserted, which moves parallel and silently: the CLARITY Act + GENIUS Act + Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Macro reasons Partially already explored, but we could go deeper talking about economic growth: with unemployment at 4.3% and a GDP growth expected by the Atlanta Fed at 3.7% , it's not a level that alerts to recession. Trying to also insert a "micro" variable, companies don't seem to be in a situation of economic difficulty, especially the sector closest to Bitcoin: the technological one. Not by chance the Q1 data was excellent, with an earning surprise of 10% for the tech segment, despite there already being very high expectations: for CY 2026 almost 40% earnings growth expected. Sector Earnings growth (FactSet financial data and analytics.) In essence, at these capital costs, we're still talking about economic expansion, and especially widening margins. And considering that BTC-USD is a high beta of the Nasdaq-100, personally I read it as a divergence to keep under control. FBTC: Bitcoin vs Nasdaq Performance (Seeking Alpha) Fundamental reasons In my opinion "unexpressed scarcity" is accumulating on Bitcoin's price. Many complain about the "fall of scarcity models" like stock to flow, in describing Bitcoin's price, because in the last 10 years it described its trend well, while today no. The question I ask my fellow maximalists is: did you really think that an asset could have mathematical growth? Well it's absurd to even write it. As if gold had followed its stock to flow to the letter. Naturally the price action is discontinuous, it follows logics tied to sentiment, and precisely to the market, like simply a much higher cost of capital. But this doesn't mean that Bitcoin has become less "rare". So in these market conditions it's true... Bitcoin doesn't follow stock to flow. But this in my opinion means that "unexpressed scarcity" is accumulating on the price, so read by an analyst as a sort of "discount" compared to fair price. I talked about it in depth here . FBTC: Bitcoin Power Law Projection (Author) Risk Bitcoin is not equal to the Nasdaq for a fundamental reason, for a logical coherence that has characterized recent years: low rates. Both, with growth characteristics benefit from a reduction in the cost of capital, because it becomes more interesting to expose oneself to risk. Read differently, as if the ERP (risk premium) were becoming higher (even if on FBTC you can't talk exactly about risk premium). Anyway this characterized the market of the decades preceding 2022, and the market began to attribute to BTC the connotations of high beta of the Nasdaq-100. Today the capital conditions are different... and I know that behind the push of the Nasdaq there are the hyperscalers , who have expanded CAPEX spent by 70% in 2025, and that this entails in terms of guidance almost a +3% in the companies' operating margins, and therefore an expected growth of almost 40% in 2026. But Bitcoin? Simply Bitcoin doesn't benefit from this, and if rates don't compress, precisely because of the guided inflation, this could in an adverse scenario entail the breaking of the paradigm "the Nasdaq grows, therefore bitcoin will outperform". And it's a risk considering that FBTC's annualized volatility exceeds 43%. FBTC: Risk Grade (Seeking Alpha) How do I manage the risk? Personally I would like to try to capture in the satellite component of my model portfolio this "value" in my opinion unexpressed, but with controlled risk on FBTC considering its ample liquidity. And in this sense, I do it with a technical, graphical strategy. I identify negative imbalances, and personally to do this I look at the RSI, and I wait for 30 points on weekly tf. Then I simply take position with controlled risk below the minimum (not surgical to avoid hunting for bottoms, it may be that Bitcoin returns to seek liquidity near April's lows). In this way however I amplify the possibility of positioning on a mega trend, maintaining controlled risk. FBTC: Bitcoin RSI Reset Signal (Seeking Alpha) Conclusion In conclusion, I'm down 8% from my last coverage, but it doesn't mean that there isn't unexpressed value in Bitcoin's price. At least according to my opinion, there are 3 reasons to think so, respectively political, macro/micro and fundamental. Considering FBTC's liquidity and the possibility of a controlled risk operation, I think that even today the right rating for FBTC is BUY.