Summary Gemini Space Station reported Q4'25 revenues reached $60 million, but high operating expenses and stagnant crypto exchange growth cloud profitability. The company launched a predictions market, but pulled back from overseas markets to focus on the U.S. in an odd restructuring so soon after an IPO. The U.S. market focus have not yet translated into meaningful growth or margin improvement with weak Q1'26 numbers, especially with credit card growth offset by high rewards costs. I remain cautious, recommending investors wait for clearer signs of profitable business momentum before increasing exposure to GEMI. Gemini Space Station, Inc. ( GEMI ) has been a peculiar company since going public in September and restructuring the business already. The crypto exchange has aggressively re-organized to focus on U.S. operations along with the launch of prediction markets and growing success with credit cards. My investment thesis is more Neutral as the financial picture hasn't improved enough while the stock has plunged to intriguing valuation levels. Source: Finviz Lots To Learn Gemini reported the 2nd quarterly results since the Winklevoss twins led company went public. Investors usually learn a lot from a company during this period with the management style and business operations more visible and the results better understood. The fintech reported Q4'25 revenues reached $60 million and beat consensus estimates. The crypto exchange portion isn't growing with revenues generally flat to down in Q4 at $24.5 million and 2025 revenues slipping from 2024 levels. Source: Gemini Q4'25 presentation While crypto prices have slumped since the IPO, Gemini remains a small company with investors hoping the business can drive higher volumes via additional customers to offset the lower prices. More importantly though, the investment story is increasingly clouded by the large expense structure. Gemini exited the international business due to the failure to scale in oversea markets and the high costs combined with the enhanced opportunities in the U.S. The company reported Q4 operating expenses at $171 million, up sequentially, to immediately raise alarm bells. The company had about $36 million in stock-based compensation, which immediately reduces the cash operating expenses to $135 million. Gemini cut ~30% of costs with the elimination of 30% of the workforce and the exit of markets in the UK, EU and Australia. In general terms, the quarterly expense base would fall under $100 million, still far above the revenue base. A big problem here is that the successful credit card business isn't driving profitable growth. The company is giving away the vast majority of the overall credit card revenue growth via credit card rewards while the crypto exchange business isn't growing from from cross-selling new accounts and transactions from reward balances. As a prime example, Q4 revenues were $60 million, up from $50 million in the prior quarter. The vast majority of this growth was credit card revenue growing from $5 million in Q2 to $16 million in the December quarter, but Gemini didn't report any net revenue from the business due to credit losses and crypto rewards. The company secured a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the CFTC to enter the prediction markets, but this market is highly competitive. Just now, Kalshi ( KALSHI ) raised more than $1 billion in capital at a $22 billion market valuation in order to expand market leadership in this segment, making Gemini a distant player in this area. Major Slump Gemini has already seen the stock slump from the IPO price of $28, above the original range of $24 to $26. The stock initially soared to over $45 within days, but Gemini picked a horrible time to IPO a crypto exchange with bitcoin prices plunging from a peak of around $115K when the company went public. The crypto exchange plans to launch perpetual futures contracts once these contracts are allowed in the US and is moving forward with a plan to launch US equities. The general goal remains to create a finance Super App anchored by the crypto exchange and credit cards offering crypto rewards. The question is the path to reach those goals based on the general guidance around Q1'26 numbers: Trading volume of ~$5.3 billion as of February 28, 2026, down from Q4 levels as broader trading activity has continued to soften from 2H’25 averages. Predictions: ~15,000 users have traded on our prediction markets offering, across more than 12,000 listed contracts, as of February 28, 2026. Credit card: payment volume of over $330 million and over 150K open card accounts, as of February 28, 2026. Card acquisition in Q1 reflects the shift toward more targeted marketing channels described in the business overview Gemini trading volumes are down substantially from the $11.5 billion level in Q4'25 and the prediction markets only have 15K users so far. Even the credit card business is slowing with only 5K new accounts opened through February due to a move to focus acquisition to more targeted channels. The problem here is that Gemini needs substantial growth while the business appears to be slowing, or at least stagnant. The biggest positive is that credit card volume is up substantially, but the company needs to show more progress on how the business is profitable with the high crypto rewards and the lack of transaction volumes in the other business segments. The stock has a market cap of just over $700 million and a revenue run rate of around $240 million, but Gemini needs to show more growth from business units with solid margins to wipe out the large losses due to high expenses. Takeaway The key investor takeaway is that Gemini has made a wild turn since going public in an hot IPO. The business growth prospects likely still exist, but the IPO timing with a weak crypto market led to a lot of wasted marketing efforts. Investors should use caution and wait for a more viable turn in the business before buying more shares.