Summary Hut 8 Mining Corp. receives a rating downgrade to a Hold rating valuation reflects current assets but not future capacity optionality. Roughly 21% of HUT’s $6.4B market cap is backed by Bitcoin holdings, with a strong 3.4x asset coverage ratio. The $7B Anthropic/Fluidstack deal's NPV is estimated around $3.9B, yet revenue realization is contingent on client demand, not guaranteed contracts. HUT’s upside is capped near-term; catalysts include Bitcoin price appreciation or River Bend’s operational ramp, unlike peers with upfront revenue. I covered HUT 8 Mining Corp. ( HUT ) twice last year with a Buy rating in both cases. In May 2025, on the back of the Q1 earnings, “ Hut 8 Q1 Earnings: A $1B Bitcoin Stash And A Capital-Light Future, ” and in September 2025, in an article titled " Hut 8 Stock: Trading Below Its Assets And Set For A Market Reset ." Looking back, I now feel the Buy ratings were conservative. A Strong Buy would have fit the thesis better. Still, some caution even amidst strong momentum remains a better investment approach, especially when dealing with crypto equities. My HUT rating history (Seeking Alpha ) But here now is the key point. HUT and several other miners have moved away from being pure-play crypto mining businesses. Last year, mainly in the second half, the market priced in that HPC and AI compute pivot for several of these miners. HUT is up by triple digits since my May 2025 coverage. And since the last time I revisited the stock last September, it has surged over 80%. Jan. 1, 2025 - Dec. 31, 2025 price change (Seeking Alpha, YCharts) It is worth mentioning that HUT’s surge isn't an isolated case. Just like HUT, IREN ( IREN ), Cipher Mining ( CIFR ), and TeraWulf ( WULF ) all saw triple-digit upside over the course of last year. The common denominator among these companies is the massive energy pipeline they control, which is the backbone of their pivot to HPC and AI compute. In this piece, I'll reassess HUT’s setup for a continuation of momentum this year. What the market has likely priced and what the market might be missing. Hut 8 - What is the Market Pricing, What Could the Market Be Overlooking? No doubt Hut 8 has been one of the quality Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) miner/data infrastructure companies around, and it was no surprise that HUT inched the multi-billion dollar Anthropic/Fluidstack deal , just like other miners who had positioned for HPC and AI capacity saw deals from Fluidstack, Microsoft ( MSFT ), Oracle ( ORCL ), and other big names last year. But Hut 8 is a company that has to be analyzed beyond just the 15-year, 245 MW Anthropic/Fluidstack deal at the River Bend facility. And I think the market is still valuing HUT based on what's visible today and hesitant to assign more premium for what is coming next, because the company still has significant Bitcoin exposure, and the intricacies in its Anthropic/Fluidstack deal limit the certainty of near-term revenue. Investors who follow HUT are well aware of the company’s ~80% stake in American Bitcoin ( ABTC ). This stake was part of HUT’s total 13,696 Bitcoin stash reported for Q3 2025, currently valued at ~$1.25 billion at BTC's current spot price around $90,000. Of the Bitcoin held, 10,278 BTC is held directly by HUT, and 3,418 BTC is from their ~80% exposure to ABTC and is held by ABTC. HUT reports consolidated Bitcoin holdings as the headline number, and some analysts make the mistake of erroneously calculating ABTC's stash separately and adding those to HUT’s headline number, resulting in skewed figures. Also, since ABTC is now the miner-focused subsidiary, increases or decreases in its BTC holdings in its operations updates each month abound, and this directly affects the balance sheet and, in turn, HUT’s own economic exposure (since the BTC holdings are reported by HUT as consolidated assets). So properly analyzing HUT’s liquidity at any point in time, moving forward, must include calculations of the latest Bitcoin holdings update from ABTC. In that light, while HUT reported a total of 13,696 Bitcoin as of Q3 end, that figure has since changed as ABTC has accumulated more Bitcoin since then, which now puts ABTC's total Bitcoin stash at 5,427 BTC . And a more accurate calculation will be to take HUT’s 80% economic interest in ABTC and then add that to HUT’s last reported BTC holdings of purely the BTC held directly by HUT, 10,278 BTC. ABTC Bitcoin holdings update, Jan. 2026 (American Bitcoin) The simplest way to do the math is essentially calculating 80% exposure to ABTC’s updated 5,427 BTC (which now brings HUT’s updated Bitcoin exposure to ~4,342 BTC), then adding that to the 10,278 BTC held directly by HUT, giving HUT a total of 14,620 BTC stash currently. This implies that, going by BTC's current spot price of around $90,000, the value of HUT’s total BTC exposure is currently around $1.32 billion. The point of the preceding calculation is to show that at $1.32 billion in BTC value, around 21% of HUT’s $6.4 billion market cap is backed purely by Bitcoin held. A 21% contribution to market valuation on Bitcoin assets alone, not yet inclusive of other tangible assets on the balance sheet, is impressive. As we go on in this piece, I'll further benchmark HUT’s market valuation against the net assets (which will include other infrastructure on the balance sheet), as well as against the net present value [NPV] analysis of the $7 billion deal to show how far the market has valued HUT, a potential asymmetric entry point for HUT’s bull case, or why valuation is likely stalling at current levels. On the solvency side. The implication of HUT's large Bitcoin stash, as HUT’s total debt currently sits around $390 million, is that a $1.32 billion liquidity on Bitcoin holdings alone means a ~3.4x Bitcoin asset coverage ratio, which is super healthy. Note that the Bitcoin asset coverage ratio is not yet a standardized metric, but just like other coverage ratios used in traditional financial accounting, this accurately shows a company's ability to extinguish its total liabilities using only its liquid digital reserves; hence, it is one of my favorite metrics in gauging the liquid strength of a Bitcoin-exposed company. Now, over to examining HUT's total assets and how much of that is already baked into the company's current valuation, then the $7 billion Anthropic/Fluidstack deal pipeline. At a reported total assets of $2.69 billion in Q3, a similar exercise would mean that 42% of HUT’s current market valuation is covered by tangible and digital assets. To get a more precise look at the equity floor, I’d examine net assets after subtracting all liabilities. And this gives a $1.65 billion equity base against the current valuation, implying that roughly 26% of HUT’s market value is backed by hard assets net of all liabilities. So far, these have been pure balance sheet analyses and have shown how asset-backed HUT has become on the balance sheet level. Now, going on to factor in the incremental contracted cash flow upside from the $7 billion Anthropic/Fluidstack deal into the valuation, my calculations (based on HUT’s guided $454 million annual net operating income [NOI]) show that the Anthropic and Fluidstack deal has been baked into the recent rerating and where the current valuation sits, but not to the level where the premium fully reflects the deal’s intrinsic value, associated optionality, and the company’s total energy portfolio. Year ( T ) Cash Flow (CF_t) (USD million) Discount Factor (1 / (1 + 0.085)^t) Present Value (CF_t × Discount Factor) (USD million) 1 454 0.9217 418.3 2 454 0.8496 385.8 3 454 0.7831 355.7 4 454 0.7217 327.5 5 454 0.6651 301.8 6 454 0.6130 278.4 7 454 0.5653 256.8 8 454 0.5215 236.9 9 454 0.4812 218.4 10 454 0.4442 201.6 11 454 0.4099 186.0 12 454 0.3781 171.8 13 454 0.3488 158.2 14 454 0.3215 145.8 15 454 0.2964 134.4 Total NPV 3,876 (~3.9B) First, I take the annual NOI of $454 million, as guided by HUT, over the 15-year base term, implying total undiscounted cash flows of roughly $6.9 billion ($454 million × 15 years). Next, I discount these cash flows to present value for a cleaner intrinsic assessment, using the standard net present value [NPV] formula as the revenue stream is annuity-like. Applying an 8.5% discount rate to account for execution risk and time value of money (which I think is super cautious, given the long-term triple-net structure of the deal (meaning the tenant, Anthropic/Fluidstack in this case, agrees to cover property taxes, insurance for the property, and maintenance and operating costs for the property), and Google backstopping $1.4 billion in lease obligations), the NPV of contracted cash flows comes out to roughly $3.9 billion. HUT owns the River Bend assets irrespective of whether and when the River Bend deal ramps. At the end of the lease term, HUT still owns the data center shell and substation, which are unencumbered by tenant-specific IT load. Using a conservative midpoint estimate for powered shell infrastructure of around $4 million per MW ( market estimates are between $4 million to $8 million per MW for powered shells, but I've chosen the lower end to be conservative), HUT retains a residual asset value of roughly $980 million ($4 million × 245 MW). Adding this to the discounted cash flows gives a conservative intrinsic value of around $4.9 billion for this single contract and the underlying River Bend campus assets on a present value basis. This excludes any ramp-up beyond 245 MW and ignores the stated deal ceiling of up to $17.7 billion, neither of which are included in this base case NPV. Even under these conservative assumptions, the implied intrinsic value is significant and trends towards HUT’s current market valuation of $6.4 billion. Now, let's back up a little and go back to our earlier calculated $1.32 billion value for HUT’s total Bitcoin holdings. If we add that to our $4.9 billion NPV for this deal and the River Bend residual assets, we get $6.22 billion as the total intrinsic value. ​I have decided not to incorporate the calculation for total net assets into the intrinsic value calculation because we already did a separate appraisal of the River Bend powered shell. Including the total of net assets would double-count River Bend, since its value is already captured through the combination of the NPV of the contract and the residual asset appraisal. Excluding them ensures the estimate remains conservative while still reflecting the key value drivers of the business. And it doesn't get more conservative than this. What all these intrinsic value calculations imply is that at the current market cap, the market is valuing HUT based on what is seen presently and not assigning much premium for future capacity expansion at a $6.4 billion market cap. The market is basically overlooking the total energy pipeline of 8,650 MW, with 1,530 MW already under development and 1,255 MW under exclusivity. Applying the lower-end benchmark of powered shell infrastructure pricing based on current market value to these energy capacities, HUT could match the market valuation of a peer like IREN around $15.4 billion. And this is where I would change my tone to a more cautious one. I think the market is not ready to reward pipeline capacity on its own yet, despite HUT’s pipeline capacity and the intrinsic value math I have highlighted in this piece. The timeline for the Anthropic/Fluidstack deal does not reach completion and commissioning until Q2 2027, and with Bitcoin showing less momentum, most of 2026 could be an uneventful period for HUT. There could be new deals announced in the near term, considering HUT’s pipeline under development and exclusivity, that could re-rate HUT’s share price on such a headline. But HUT still needs to begin monetizing that capacity and have it show up clearly on the financial statements to sustain any move higher. While the intrinsic valuation math favors HUT because of its large Bitcoin holdings, there is a real possibility HUT remains stuck around current valuation levels in the meantime. This becomes more apparent if you come to realize the nuance between the way HUT’s Anthropic/Fluidstack deal is structured compared to a peer like IREN’s deal with Microsoft. HUT’s $7 billion Anthropic/Fluidstack deal is structured like a revenue share, unlike IREN and its $9.7 billion Microsoft deal, which provides upfront contracted revenue and guaranteed payments, and revenue ramps only as capacity comes online. Once capacity is live, it becomes an annualized run rate revenue ((ARR)). On that note, Microsoft has reportedly paid $1.9 billion upfront (20% of the deal value) to IREN. The way HUT’s Anthropic/Fluidstack deal is structured means HUT monetizes capacity only if Fluidstack secures paying clients. Revenue depends on client demand, making it optionality-based rather than guaranteed. While the Google backstop sets a revenue floor and limits downside risk for HUT, investors appear to favor peers with ARR-style revenue that is tied to clearer and more predictable cash flow. On the surface, comparing HUT’s and IREN’s valuation multiples suggests HUT commands a higher premium due to its higher Price to Sales, EV to Sales, and Price to Book ratios. The twist is IREN is already delivering higher sales quality and is cash flow positive, with record revenue growth recorded in Q1 2026 results. This is a phase where the market may start to view HUT as expensive. Data by YCharts HUT is currently holding 13,696 BTC. Management is using part of it as a piggy bank to facilitate loans (management has confirmed this in the last few earnings calls). If Bitcoin trades sideways for an extended period or declines further this year, HUT may need to liquidate part of this intrinsic value (the held BTC) to fund extrinsic growth (the HPC build-out). I think the market will also be pricing in this Bitcoin exposure risk. Takeaways I started out this piece as a focus on HUT but down the line shifted into a comparison with IREN, because at this point in the HPC pivot, with lots of headline deals being announced, there is no better way to show who’s executing well and faster and who is lagging beyond the headline deals than by doing an actual side-by-side. HUT’s deal is a lease, but its ultimate upside is tied to Fluidstack's utilization. While the Google backstop de-risks the lease payments, it doesn't provide the same cash-in-hand rocket fuel that IREN's upfront payment provided. HUT is becoming a Deep Value play on an asset basis but also looks like an Expensive Growth play on a sales basis because first sales from the deal will take a while to arrive, and the structure of the deal means the likelihood for a slower sales velocity. While a peer like IREN looks more like a GARP play on a sales basis because execution arrives nearer, with near-term EBITDA visibility and cleaner revenue velocity, not based on pipeline capacity alone but on contracted cash flows already hitting the books. HUT will likely stay stuck around this valuation until one of two things happens: either Bitcoin surges higher (inflating the NAV) or River Bend goes live. Despite the intrinsic value, the market is pricing in certain risks or uncertainties, which I've highlighted in this piece. This justifies a Hold rating in the near term.