Summary I expect Bitcoin to bottom near $38k around September 2026, based on historical four-year price cycles. IBIT offers an accessible way to trade Bitcoin during key bull and bear cycles, with technicals currently signaling further downside risk. IBIT's weekly chart shows a potential bullish divergence, but I prioritize confirmation from BTC before calling a market bottom. A dollar-cost averaging strategy into IBIT or BTC may capture value as the bear market nears its historical end, with upside in the next bull cycle. I explained in my last Bitcoin-related ( BTC-USD ) article that the cryptocurrency was likely to experience another leg down before the price bottomed in this price cycle . That next leg down did occur as the price of bitcoin declined 17% since that May 2026 article was published. Bitcoin is also down 19.5% from when my iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF ( IBIT ) article was written in February 2026 . I like IBIT as a way to trade bitcoin on the long and short side during the key bull and bear price cycles. The IBIT ETF makes trading bitcoin easy as it can be trading just like stocks in a brokerage account. So, there is no need to use bitcoin wallets to trade/invest in the cryptocurrency. I am now expecting the final phase of this bitcoin bear market to occur over about the next 3 months. This theory is based on Bitcoin's 4-year price cycles, which typically end with an approximate one-year bear market. If this bear market lasts as long as it has in previous price cycles, then bitcoin's price should bottom out around September 2026. I realize there is no guarantee that this will occur this time, but each bear market has been relatively consistent. Bitcoin's Weekly Chart BTC-USD ) ( IBIT ) Weekly Price Chart w/ RSI & MACD" contenteditable="false" width="640" height="501"> Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Weekly Price Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) I pointed out in my last bitcoin-related article that the bear flag formation from February 2026 to May 2026 could result in another breakdown to the downside. Bitcoin's price did break below the bear flag formation in the first week of June 2026. The RSI failed to break above the 50 level, which reflects the recent bearish downward move in June. The RSI remains bearish as it remains below the 50 level. The MACD shows declining momentum as the histogram bars decreased in length while the blue MACD line dropped to about even with the red signal line. The bearishness on these 2 indicators could lead to further declines. One possible scenario for bitcoin is that a bullish divergence could form, indicating the bottom of the bear cycle. This would occur if bitcoin's price makes a lower low while the RSI makes a higher low. Bullish divergences tend to result in price reversals to the upside from what I have observed. I will be sure to provide an updated article if a bullish divergence does form on bitcoin's weekly price chart. IBIT's Weekly Chart IBIT ) Weekly Chart w/ RSI & MACD" contenteditable="false" width="640" height="501"> iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Weekly Chart w/ RSI & MACD (TradingView) I provided IBIT's weekly chart above since it shows a similar pattern as bitcoin's chart with some slight differences. IBIT did break below that last bear flag formation similar to bitcoin's price action. One of the differences is that IBIT's MACD just crossed below the red signal line while the histogram bars turned red. This indicates a change in trend back to bearish, which could lead to more selling. Another difference between Bitcoin's and IBIT's weekly charts is that IBIT did form a bullish divergence. This occurred as IBIT made a lower low from $35 to $33 from February 2026 to June 2026. At the same time, the RSI made a higher low from a slightly oversold level to just above the oversold level. However, the possible bullishness could be negated if IBIT's price continues to trend down which could drive the RSI to a lower low. I put more weight on bitcoin's price chart for a potential bullish divergence before making a bottom call for this bear market. Bitcoin is not yet showing a bullish divergence. However, it is worth keeping an eye on IBIT's price action to see if the trend changes back to bullish. This could occur if IBIT's price moves higher from here, driving the RSI above 50 and the MACD to cross back above the red signal line with the histogram bars turning back to green. Sometimes, a 3rd lower low occurs in the price with a 3rd higher low on the RSI. So, we'll have to keep a close eye on the price action over the next few weeks and months to see what exactly develops. What Possible Price for Bitcoin's Bottom? My target for bitcoin's price bottom remains at $38k. While this looks pessimistic from the current price, my reasoning is based on shallower declines in each price cycle. The $38k target would be a 70% decline from the price peak of $126k. This is lower than the 78% decline that bitcoin experienced in the previous price cycle which bottomed in late 2022. It is also much lower than the 85% decline from the cycle before that which bottomed in early 2019. When you look at it that way, the target of $38k actually looks reasonable. Latest Strategy Bitcoin could be nearing the end of this bear market over the next few months if this cycle remains consistent in length to prior cycles. With that in mind, a dollar-cost averaging strategy can be a viable way to get back into the cryptocurrency on the long side. Investors can buy IBIT or bitcoin every week or every month to accumulate a position. Then, when the next bull market occurs, investors can benefit from the current bargain prices and the following potential price appreciation. The dollar-cost averaging strategy takes the guesswork out of trying to jump in at the price bottom or close to the bottom. More nimble investors or traders might consider holding their short positions until around September and then switch to a long position. This would align their trade with the historic length of one-year for bitcoin's bear markets. Even if they don't get in at the exact bottom, these traders are still likely to benefit from lower prices over the long-term. The bull markets tend to last for about 3 years. So, there will be plenty of time to benefit from price appreciation if the future bull cycle exceeds the previous all-time high of about $126k. The risk for bitcoin is the assumption that the price will continue to rise over the long-term. Bitcoin's price has made higher highs in each price cycle so far since inception. However, there are no guarantees that that will continue. Bitcoin's supply remains fixed at 21 million coins that can ever be mined. So, the price can be driven by that fixed supply along with increased demand. More investors using bitcoin as 'digital gold' can keep the demand strong, which can keep the price rising over the long-term.