Summary I maintain a buy rating on iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) after it held critical $58,000 support and showed improving momentum. IBIT’s absolute and relative strength have improved, with implied volatility normalizing after a February spike marked a bottom signal. Despite a 43% drawdown from highs, crypto bear markets appear less severe as institutional ownership grows and bitcoin matures. I may add to my IBIT position if bitcoin rallies through the mid-$70,000s or IBIT clears the $46 resistance level. Bitcoin has proven some resilience in the latest bout of geopolitical upheaval . WTI crude oil nearly touched $120 last Sunday night as uncertainty in the US-Iran war escalated. Now, had that occurred a few months ago, crypto would have likely been under major pressure, given its high-risk correlation. But we didn’t see that this go-round. In fact, bitcoin held its February low—right at key support I laid out earlier this year. Today, I’m revisiting the iShares Bitcoin ETF ( IBIT ). I had a buy rating on the fund in early February , and while the product is down 10% since then, I assert that the possession arrow has shifted in the bulls’ favor... as March Madness gets going. After tagging key support, we have new levels to watch heading into the springtime. YTD Returns: Bitcoin Lags US & Global Stocks, Bonds, Commodities Stockcharts.com According to the issuer , IBIT enables investors to get exposure to Bitcoin through the convenience of an exchange-traded product, helping remove the operational, tax, and custody complexities of holding Bitcoin directly. IBIT is a large ETF, now with $53 billion in assets under management as of March 9, 2026. Its annual expense ratio is somewhat low at 25 basis points, while there is no trailing 12-month dividend yield . Given that there are no cash flows to shareholders, and volatility is high, this is an ideal asset to hold in a taxable brokerage account (and not a tax-sheltered vehicle like an IRA or brokerage 401(k) account). Share-price momentum is dreadful today, earning the product a poor F ETF Grade in that category by Seeking Alpha’s quantitative scoring system. I’ll note later, however, that both absolute and relative strength have improved in the last few weeks. Of course, with very high historical standard deviation metrics, the ETF Risk Grade is also poor. Many investors have questions about position sizing—I laid out last time that a 1-2% portfolio stake is appropriate, in my view. That’s about my portfolio weighting (between the IBIT and ETF ETFs). IBIT is highly liquid , given average daily volume of 67 million shares, while the median 30-day bid/ask spread is tight at only three basis points, per iShares. Onto where we stand with bitcoin and IBIT today. While the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency is down sharply so far in 2026, we have seen improved trends. Goldman Sachs points out that bitcoin and the Financials sector bring up the asset returns YTD, while hard assets have performed the best. That may remind investors of the so-called “HALO” trade—bitcoin got caught up in the software selloff and risks that AI could replace asset-light tech programs. For now, it appears “Citrini Monday” marked a zenith in that narrative (which is now an upside catalyst for bitcoin). YTD Asset Returns: Bitcoin Remains Weak Goldman Sachs Trading near $71,000 as of this writing, bitcoin’s implied volatility remains high. For IBIT specifically, we IV is north of 50%. That’s a high, but not extreme level. It spiked in early February, back when IBIT notched its low. The jump to 80% came just after my previous analysis, and historically comparable volatility events have marked solid buying opportunities. Recent price action only serves to confirm a price low. IBIT Implied Volatility Spiked in Early February--Bottom Signal Fidelity Investments But there is still wood to chop for the entire crypto space. Bitcoin is still mired in a 43% drawdown from its all-time high, while ether is off a whopping 58%. I’d call out that a trend may be emerging in which crypto bear markets appear to be turning less severe since the 2017-2018 crash. That makes sense as bitcoin matures and institutional ownership increases. I expect that long-term declines will, of course, occur, but they may not be in the 70-90% range, but 40-60%. Smaller Crypto Drawdowns Over Time Koyfin Charts Seasonally, we are in the throes of a bullish period. Of course, seasonality is never gospel, and we’ve seen bitcoin weakness so far in 2026, despite historical positive trends from January and February. March is on track for gains, however. Bitcoin: March-July Bullish Calendar Trends Barchart Turning to the price charts, let’s begin with a relative view of IBIT to the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ). The ratio view reveals a double bottom in February, with a rebound over the past three weeks. Now, this graph is not outright bullish. Why? Well, we saw a similar pattern unfold late last year and into early 2026. That turned out to be a bear flag for IBIT vs SPY. I’d like to see a more accelerated relative rally for IBIT into mid-year to negate the bearish risk of another such flag pattern. IBIT vs SPY: Trending Higher After A February Low, Despite Macro Risks Stockcharts.com For bitcoin itself, the below chart shows the key developments since my previous analysis. Bitcoin indeed held the 61.8% retracement level near $58,000 that I pointed out earlier this quarter. Today, all eyes are on the mid-$70,000s—that's a key long-term battlezone. Notice in the chart below that the token encountered selling pressure there in early 2024, met buying support at that mark about a year ago, and is once again dealing with the area now. A rally through $75,000 would be very encouraging to cement the chance of a bottom at $58,000. Of course, the long-term 200-day moving average is declining, suggesting the bears still have some control over the primary trend. Bitcoin: $58,000 Fibonacci Support Held Stockcharts.com As for IBIT, we see perhaps a broader resistance range from $42 to $46. Take a look at the gap that lingers from February—I want to see IBIT rally into and through that gap without getting promptly sold off. A bear flag is also seen on this nearer-term view, with the top-end of that consolidation pattern being right near where the 200dma comes into the scene. What’s troubling for long-term bulls is that there remains a high amount of volume by price up to the mid-$60s. So, the onus is on the longs to carry IBIT through significant supply. IBIT: Key $42-$46 Resistance Range Stockcharts.com The Bottom Line I have a buy rating on IBIT. $58,000 proved to be long-term support, and we now see absolute and relative strength in IBIT and bitcoin. Crypto has also weathered new macro turmoil that has come about since my previous writing. I feel encouraged with my position, and may add if we see a rally through the mid-$70,000s on bitcoin ($46 on IBIT).