Summary Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a replacement currency, with current prices offering long-term accumulation opportunities despite ongoing bearish trends. Macroeconomic headwinds—rising inflation, tighter Fed policy, and competing liquidity demands from AI and IPOs—are likely to pressure BTC through the second half of the year. Technical indicators suggest BTC is near a bottom, but lacks confirmation of a definitive floor; the 200 WMA is a key resistance zone to monitor. Alternative plays include cryptominers transitioning to AI infrastructure, with IREN Limited highlighted for its contracts, pipeline, and lower valuation multiples versus peers. In my previous article about Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) I told you I was wrong. My view of bitcoin of almost eight years ago was a mistake. I believe Bitcoin was going to gradually replace the dollar and that it was going to be used as currency of exchange. That didn't happen, and in my article I explained the determining factors that I believe influenced its lack of mass adoption. I still hold my Bitcoin investment, but I'm waiting for the price to rise again to sell. The peaks of $120,000 in October 2025 were a clear sell signal that I didn't see. Now I am waiting for the new bullish period, understanding we are in a year of corrections or, as some analysts say, the bitcoin winter. The 2026 fall: where is the floor? The strong wave of selling from the highs of last October was strongest in the last month. In May alone, Bitcoin ETFs sold approximately $5 billion worth of assets. In the last week of May, the biggest weekly sell-off of the last year was $1.76 billion. CoinMarketCap At the beginning of June, the price of Bitcoin hit a low near $60,600, before rebounding to around $63,000-$64,000 in recent days. Technical indicators show that there is still no certainty that $60,000 was a definitive floor. According to CoinDesk's analysis , the weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) should strongly surpass 41.5, while a break below 30 would still indicate a bearish trend. The weekly RSI rose above 41.5 in April, but it stopped at 50 and then fell below 41.5 again. In the following chart provided by CoinDesk, you can see it clearly. CoinDesk Bearish patterns with a weekly RSI below 30 are often called oversold periods. And in the chart, you can clearly see that those bearish patterns happen approximately every three bullish years. According to specialists, the correction years were 2015, 2019, and 2022-2023. These are approximate, not exact, estimates. Between the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, a year of correction started, while the weekly RSI last touched 70 (a level traders consider overbought) just as the price of Bitcoin reached its October all-time highs. So, being guided by the specialists (I am not a trader and I don't have much knowledge of technical analysis), there don't appear to be any signs that the downtrend has ended. But there could be clues that we are near that end. But, what do I mean by "near"? Although I don't like to set deadlines, I believe in this case it's worth estimating some timeframes and what Bitcoin investors can do. And that's why it is important to take into account the macroeconomic situation and the stock market context. Have in mind that in my investment thesis, Bitcoin is not on its way to becoming a currency, but rather a speculative investment. In my case, I am not in a hurry in my investment. I want to sell my position at new all-time highs and, although I believe current prices could be attractive for buying and accumulating, I don't plan to do so. I decided not to buy any more and just hold my position. But this is also an analysis for Bitcoin investors. So, if anybody wants to buy, I don't think it's a bad decision, although there could be another fall in the bearish trend. Therefore, once again, I will analyze the macroeconomic trends. Market trends and underlying factors that influence the price As a speculative investment, Bitcoin has a strong aversion to risk, so in times of uncertainty its price could fall. At the beginning of 2026, defensive assets gained strength, as was the case with consumer staples stocks ( XLP ), which rose 5% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the technology index ( QQQ ) fell more than 6% in the same period. The first quarter of 2026 was a period of correction in the market, and it added some uncertainty after the start of the conflict in the Middle East at the end of February. Data by YCharts In that context, as a risk asset, Bitcoin fell 23.79%. But once markets priced in the uncertainty of the war in Iran, optimism returned thanks to the AI ​​boom. The whole industry related to AI data center infrastructure has increased strongly since then until the first week of June. In general, I assumed Bitcoin was going down as part of the market correction, and I thought it would follow the path of the technology index, sharing its bullish rhythm. But it wasn't like that. Basically, since last October, the main market indices ( SPY ) ( QQQ ) ( DJI ) have detached from the downward trend of Bitcoin. Data by YCharts Having this in mind, I believe market trends point to the possibility that, after a strong rise in the SPY (it increased 19% in the last two/three months), we could be entering a new phase of correction due to several factors. These include inflation, which reached 4.2% annually in the May report , expectations of a more hawkish monetary policy with the arrival of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chairman, and the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East (in the last few hours, President Trump has confirmed that there is a preliminary peace agreement with Iran) . There are also specific factors related to the new IPOs that are attracting investors' attention and, therefore, absorbing a lot of liquidity. The most recent case is that of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. ( SPCX ), Elon Musk's company became the most valuable company in history by market capitalization, reaching $2.5 trillion. This euphoria will be further fueled in the coming months by the IPOs of OpenAI ( OPENAI ) and Anthropic ( ANTHRO ), which could be worth $840 billion and $965 billion, respectively . Precisely, liquidity is another important factor that influences the price of Bitcoin and any digital asset. In this sense, higher inflation, rising Treasury bond yields, and a more restrictive monetary policy cause overall liquidity to decrease, leading investors to choose more conservative assets. This creates, in my opinion, a combination of two major factors that affect Bitcoin. On the one hand, there are expectations of lower liquidity, and on the other, that existing capital is moving towards stocks with high profit forecasts due to their connection to the development of AI data center infrastructure. And if that capital doesn't go to the AI boom, it could be captured by new companies that go public. Some analysts are basically pointing out that cryptocurrencies and AI are competing for the same retail capital. And now SPCX has joined the search for that capital. And if those factors endure, I believe Bitcoin will continue in a bearish trend, maybe going through its last bearish phase, but that could last a few more months. At the risk of estimating a timeframe, I believe this could easily last throughout the second half of the year because the projected annual inflation could reach up to 6% in the coming months . Fed policy could shape bitcoin's recovery If the Fed reacts aggressively to rising inflation, that is, with a rate hike (even if it's only by 25 basis points) and ends the Treasury bond buyback program initiated by Jerome Powell, that could complicate Bitcoin's recovery. In terms of monetary policy, this could be the worst-case scenario. The 25 bps hike doesn't need to be this Wednesday, when Warsh will make his presentation with the first rate decision. There could be a rate hike in the following meetings. This Wednesday is a key day because of what Warsh will say. Market sentiment will be crucial. A moderate, but still pessimistic scenario, is that the Fed simply stops buying Treasury bonds. This would be my base scenario for monetary policy. It creates expectations of a recovery because real interest rates could remain negative for the rest of the year if the Fed does nothing. But letting assets mature will reduce liquidity. The best scenario for Bitcoin could be the Fed holding a neutral monetary policy (the current interest rate). This monetary policy would be the most optimistic, maintaining negative real interest rates, and could be based on the assumption that the conflict in the Middle East is nearing its end. This would also imply that the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and that oil distribution returns to normal globally. Despite the monetary policy the Fed will adopt, it will also begin the election campaign for the renewal of Congress in November, and will start to gain more and more visibility, adding uncertainty to the markets. In general, considering all the perspectives, I believe the scenario is not the best. The underlying factors of the economy are not helping Bitcoin consolidate its recovery. Even so, I believe that Bitcoin, for those who want to buy and accumulate for the long term, is already offering attractive prices. Looking again at some technical indicators, prices are in a resistance zone at the 200 WMA, which specialists point to as a key range from where assets can bounce and return to a long term bullish trend. In the following chart, you can clearly see the current resistance level at the light blue line. Bitbo How do I continue my investment strategy? As I explained in previous articles, I won't add any more Bitcoin to my position. Anyway, I understand this could be a very good moment to accumulate Bitcoin for those who are planning to invest in it for the long term. An alternative, given that I believe we are in a scenario of bottoming out within a downtrend, could also be to invest in Strategy Inc ( MSTR ), the company of Michael Saylor that bases its business model on accumulating bitcoin and has a higher beta. Its volatility is a bit higher than Bitcoin's, but if the mid term outlook is a return to a bullish scenario, MSTR could be a good opportunity. I repeat: this is not my type of investment. I won't buy any more Bitcoin or related assets, such as MSTR. I am shifting my investment towards stocks that previously relied on bitcoin mining and are now transforming their business into supplying hyperscalers to their AI data centers. Cryptomining has an energy advantage by nature and, although companies are assuming significant transition costs, I believe there is potential that can be utilized. One of my favourite investments for those of us who prefer to stop investing in bitcoin, is Keel Infrastructure ( KEEL ), formerly known as Bitfarms. The company is at an earlier stage of the transition, not yet showing any contracts with hyperscalers, but its projection of 2.2 GW of installed capacity by 2027 is an important catalyst. Management already explained in previous calls that its infrastructure is designed for the new generation of NVIDIA Corporation ( NVDA ) chips, especially Vera Rubin, Blackwell, and beyond. But there are several options. Many cryptominers are changing their business models. If you are looking for a more consolidated option, I believe IREN Limited ( IREN ) could be a more attractive investment. The company is looking for a pipeline of 5 GW and has already showcased contracts and strategic agreements with Microsoft ( MSFT ) and NVIDIA. Besides, compared to peer companies, IREN trades at lower valuation multiples. For example, their P/S is 22.93x, while that of Hut 8 Corp. ( HUT ) or TeraWulf ( WULF ) is 45.39x and 68.32x, respectively. In this article, I explained in detail my view of the company. Risks While I hold my position in bitcoin, one of the biggest risks is that the bull cycle will take longer to return or that its momentum will be weaker. Although I already explained that more restrictive monetary policy affects Bitcoin, as happens with any digital asset, the strength of the dollar is another risk factor. The main thesis of bitcoin has always been the devaluation of the dollar. If the dollar strengthens, the Bitcoin thesis loses strength. In the same way, fiscal policy-related factors could also negatively influence it in the short term. Basically, while the chronic U.S. fiscal deficit favors Bitcoin, the upward pressure on bond yields to finance that deficit delays and disrupts the cryptocurrency's cycles. Conclusions I still believe Bitcoin is no longer an attractive investment for those who want a more stable and conservative portfolio, but that it continues to represent an investment in modern business models for the future economy. I wanted to show a short-term view and whether the price of Bitcoin is nearing the end of its downtrend, using some technical analysis tools. I also showed you the key macroeconomic factors that influence the price and could continue to affect it over the rest of the year. I also presented the key macroeconomic factors that influence the price and could continue to affect it over the rest of the year. I also explained in the investment risks section that if Bitcoin's cycles break down, there is an even worse scenario: that Bitcoin could take many more years to return to all-time highs. I believe this is a very unlikely scenario and, in any case, I accept the risks and maintain my position in Bitcoin, expecting a new bullish cycle.