Summary I reiterate my buy rating on Bitcoin despite a 49% decline from October 2025 highs. Recent negative catalysts—war, ETF outflows, and corporate selling—have had limited price impact, suggesting market exhaustion. On-chain metrics indicate over half of Bitcoin supply is at unrealized loss, historically signaling a market bottom and buying opportunity. I maintain a $103,000 year-end target for BTC, though a potential downside to $53,000 remains if historical correlations hold. Investment Thesis I reiterate my buy rating on Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) even after the poor performance since October 2025. My last article was published in February 2026. In this piece, I analyzed the perfect storm on the Bitcoin thesis and some clues that make me confident with this cryptocurrency. Context 2026 is not an easy year for Bitcoin investors. When the Iran war started, Bitcoin soared 24% until March 9, 2026, making investors proud because Gold prices were falling. XAU/USD vs BTC/USD (SA) At that time, probably Bitcoin investors were thinking that this asset finally was showing a store of value behavior, but they were wrong, because now Bitcoin is falling as gold since the start of the war. XAU/USD vs BTC/USD (SA) In the last month, these same investors also saw a massive outflow in Bitcoin ETFs; i.e., institutional investors were selling aggressively. Bitcoin ETF Outflow (Zero Hedge) Strategy released its first Bitcoin sell operation after 41 months of buying. The company sold just 32 Bitcoins, but enough to raise doubt in investors' heads about a new approach of the main corporate Bitcoin holder. All these events happen while Bitcoin prices have fallen 49% off their highs reached on October 5, 2025. It is a great invitation to abandon this thesis, but don't do that yet! BTC/USD (SA) The Desired Signal Since 2010, when Bitcoin prices were near the bottom, an on-chain metric stood out, which basically measures the quantity of Bitcoins with unrealized losses. Coincidentally, when more than half of the Bitcoins held were at unrealized loss, investors were witnessing a market bottom, i.e., a great investment opportunity. This is happening again now! Total Supply in Loss (CoinDesk) Another perspective: all the bad events I cited, like the Iran War, massive Bitcoin ETF outflow, and Strategy sells, came after February, when curiously I recommended buying Bitcoin . Despite all this perfect storm, Bitcoin prices fell just 2.79%, which suggests exhaustion in my opinion. When such negative news has so little impact on price, we have a clue that the market bottom is very close. Recommendation (The Author) That's why I reinforce my buy rating on Bitcoin and a $103,000 target by the end of the year! Potential Threats to the Thesis The on-chain metric called Realized Price inspires caution. Bitcoin has never surpassed a Crypto Winter without reaching the Realized Price. Realized Price (MacroMicro) If Bitcoin respects this correlation, the prices would fall until $53,000, a downside around 16%. Realized Price (MacroMicro) Another disclaimer about the Total Supply in Loss is that when more than 50% of the Bitcoins in circulation were at unrealized losses, the investors were in front of an opportunity, but this insight came from fewer than 10 events. The Bottom Line Some interesting clues indicate that the market bottom is very close. Do you prefer to buy Bitcoin near $60,000 or above $100,000? That's why I reinforce my buy recommendation.