Summary Bitcoin tagged its 200-week moving average near $61,800 for the first time this cycle, but the bottom looks unconfirmed: realized losses sit $37B below the 2022 low despite a far larger market, no capitulation flush has printed, and institutions are net selling 2,000 BTC per day. Equities and crypto are bleeding together. The SpaceX IPO, 4x oversubscribed at $250B, may be pulling liquidity from risk assets, and crypto would be among the most exposed as the most retail-driven of them. BTC funding stayed stubbornly positive through the drop, with longs still adding against the trend. ETH is a step ahead, flipping negative as its longs began to capitulate. Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) has fallen to its 200-week moving average, the line that has marked past cycle bottoms, yet several signals suggest the floor may not be in. Meanwhile, capital is leaving crypto just as SpaceX's ( SPCX ) record IPO may pull even more attention away from risk assets. Is this the dip to buy, or will BTC keep grinding lower? Bitcoin May Continue to Probe Lower Bitcoin traded sideways around $63K this week. May CPI rose 4.2% and PPI surged 6.5%, its largest gain since November 2022, leaving the Fed unable to cut, while Strait of Hormuz energy pressure shows no sign of easing. The backdrop is unfavorable, and near-term momentum is absent. Three signals suggest the market may probe lower before a durable bottom forms. First, realized losses haven't matched the last cycle. Cumulative realized loss this cycle sits near $174.5B, still $37B short of the $211.5B at the 2022 low. Yet, Bitcoin's market cap is now several times larger than then, with BTC bottoming near $15K in 2022 versus above $60K today. A far bigger market producing less loss-taking than the smaller 2022 market suggests the seller exhaustion that marks a true bottom hasn't fully played out. Second, a final capitulation usually precedes the bottom. Past bottoms were each marked by a panic flush exceeding $100B in daily volume on heavy down candles. This week's selling has run closer to $50B per day, a slow grind rather than capitulation. Until that high-volume flush clears out weak hands, the supply overhang that caps recoveries tends to persist. Third, institutions are net sellers, led by ETFs. Net institutional selling is running at roughly 450% of daily mined supply, about 2,000 BTC per day, four to five times what is mined. The drag is concentrated in spot ETFs, which have shed around $27B over the past month. This reverses the 2024–2025 regime, when ETF inflows were the structural bid behind record highs. With that bid now gone, the marginal flow is a persistent source of supply, not demand. Source: Darkfost/X On price, Bitcoin has fallen to its 200-week moving average, the first touch this cycle. This line has historically been Bitcoin's floor of last resort: past bottoms all formed on or just below it, with rallies following soon after. The exception was December 2022, when price sat roughly 40% below the line and stayed under for months, which is the worst case we can reasonably project this cycle. A return to the 200-week line typically signals the market has entered late-bear, deep-value territory, the darkness before dawn. Is Liquidity Being Pulled Toward the SpaceX IPO? This week's most important flow signal sits outside crypto. Over the past week, US equities sold off hard, led by a 4%+ single-day drop in the Nasdaq, its worst since April 2025, in a broad selloff that hit stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto at the same time, with the 10-year Treasury yield pushing past 4.5%. Over the past five days, the equity selling concentrated on the most liquid, most crowded growth names: AVGO −18.6%, ORCL −15.9%, MU −12.1%, MSFT −8.6%, AMD −8.8%, AAPL −7.8% and NVDA −6.6%. Crypto fell alongside them, with the total market shedding more than $180B over the week. These are the observable facts: a simultaneous, broad-based bleed across risk assets, concentrated in the positions easiest to sell. barchart.com One plausible explanation is the SpaceX IPO. Priced at a fixed $135 per share, it raises roughly $75B at a $1.8 trillion valuation, the largest in history, and begins trading today, June 12. Reported demand has reached around $250B, roughly four times oversubscribed, and about 30% of the deal is carved out for retail, far above the usual 5–10%. With both retail and institutions watching the deal and ready to deploy capital at a moment's notice, that cash has to be freed up by selling something else first, and the most liquid risk assets are the natural source. As for how much capital actually flowed into the IPO, next week's market will give us the answer. ETH Leverage Nearly Cleared, BTC Longs Yet to Capitulate Since mid-May, BTC's OI-weighted funding rate has held firmly positive even as price fell from around $80K to the low $60Ks. Normally a decline of this size would push funding negative as shorts take control, so the combination of falling price and positive funding is notable: leveraged longs have kept adding into the drop, not capitulating. ETH's ( ETH-USD ) funding turned positive over the same mid-May window, tracking BTC, but flipped negative around June 6 as price slid toward the $1.4–1.5K area. That shift suggests ETH longs have started to give up and shorts are taking control, a step further along the deleveraging path than BTC. ETH's leverage is closer to being cleared, while BTC's crowded long has yet to fully capitulate. Week Ahead Jun 16: Bank of Japan rate decision Jun 17: U.S. FOMC decision (Warsh's first meeting) Jun 18: Bank of England rate decision Jun 18: U.S. Jobless Claims The week's core event is the June 17 FOMC, with the focus on forward guidance under new Chair Warsh. After a 4.2% headline CPI, the open questions are whether the dot plot is retained or scrapped, whether the lone remaining 2026 cut is erased, and whether the SEP's inflation track is revised higher. Beyond that, central bank decisions cluster this week, with both Japan and the UK releasing their latest rate decisions. Watch in particular whether the BOJ hikes, which would pressure the carry trade that has funded global risk positioning . Disclaimer: The information provided herein does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice, and should not be treated as such. All content set out above is for informational purposes only. Original Post